Thursday, April 9, 2009

Housing Shortage?

Jill Korenaga
Yesterday's releases gave us lots of numbers to digest. What I keep mulling around in my brain is:
Construction, new permits, new housing starts, builder confidences are at all time lows 2 months in a row. New housing starts below 1mil nationally is nearly unheard of since the 1960s. Last month's report was under 500,000.
CAR unsold inventories index is only 1/3 of the supply reported on the market one year ago and days on market has dropped to 50 compared to 71 days the same time last year.
California being the 8th largest economy (the bigger they are the harder they fall?) in the world will undoubtedly pull through the current budget crisis albeit with the Feds help leading to new jobs, improved wages and all in the midst of home prices being roughly 1/3 to 1/2 of what they were a decade ago.
From super extreme (2006) to over-correction (2009) to landing somewhere in the middle - maybe. Maybe not. California's population just increased by 379,132, while in a deep recession.
Could this mean that this time next year we may actually be facing a housing shortage?

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