Hold On To Your ARMs

I just finished up a call with a Mrs. Babikian who owns a home in Pasadena. She said she needs to refi her $310,000 mortgage.  

I asked:  What's the goal?

Mrs. B:  I want a fixed rate.

Me:  What's the rate you're paying now?

Mrs. B:  4.00% but it will adjust in 2015

Me:  Is it a fully amortized loan i.e. are you paying principal and interest?

Mrs. B:  Yes

Me:  Is the current payment affordable?

Mrs. B:  Yes

Me:  Contrary to popular belief you'll be better served with your current mortgage.

Mrs. B:  ????????
  

Me:  You have roughly a 70% equity position, you're paying down principal each month, it's a very affordable monthly payment, you don't need or want any cash... correct?

Mrs. B: Yes

Me:  The Fed has repeatedly stated that they will maintain the current target rate of 0%-.25% well into 2015.  While the Fed doesn't control mortgage rates their policy does influence trends for all other indexes long and short term.  This means when your rate adjusts it will adjust LOWER. 

Mrs. Babikian's mortgage is a 5/1 Libor ARM. Per the terms of her note the rate is fixed at 4.000% for the first 5 years and subject to change on April 1, 2015.

Section 4(D) of her note reads - 

The interest rate I am required to pay at the first Change Date will not be greater than 9.000% or less than 2.25%.  Thereafter, my interest rate will never be increased or decreased on any single Change Date by more than TWO (2.00%) from the rate of interest I have been paying for the preceding 12 months.  My interest rate will never be greater than 9.000%. 

Currently the 12 month LIBOR is .639% plus 2.25% margin and you get a fully indexed rate of 2.889%.  Pretty nice, huh?  

In light of what our Fed Chairman has been saying for the last 4 years and just said again two days ago, there's simply no reason to expect significant increases until at least 2018.  

Of course, many would argue that I'm giving bad advice rebutting with statements like  "Rates are artificially low right now."  and "It's not sustainable!"  

Like my Grammy used to say "Ahwww, you're pullin' my leg!"  Fact is, for a sovereign currency issuer it is totally sustainable.  Here's another fact - The natural rate of interest is zero.  

Choosing Between Adjustable Rate and Fixed Rate Loans: The Best Financial Decision May Surprise You

The most basic decision home buyers and home owners have to make is whether to choose a fixed rate loan or an adjustable one. It isn’t easy to break through media hype and find real data on which to make a sound, objective decision.  Unfortunately ARMs have been mostly prescribed as a way to afford a bigger home. 

A Short History
Americans have been regular customers of lenders selling fixed-rate loans since just after World War II. The fixed rate and payment provided a secure way for a growing middle class to achieve home ownership. Back then, adjustable rate loans as we know them today did not exist, so borrowers had little choice.

More recently, adjustable rate home loans have become widely available; however, they are still largely viewed with suspicion by a majority of borrowers. ARMs make up only 15-25% of all home loans funded in any given period. Many of these are actually hybrid loans that have an initial fixed rate period of 3-10 years. Borrowers with hybrid loans generally plan to refinance out of the loan when the fixed period ends, so they are really choosing a “short-term” fixed rate loan rather than a true adjustable rate loan.

The “Problem” with ARMs
The decision to choose an adjustable rate home loan over a fixed rate loan is a hard step to take for most people, for one reason: A fear of rising rates.  Many borrowers are old enough to remember, or have heard of, the Carter-era mortgage rates in the high teens, and most people think high inflation was to blame, and even though that's not how it works, this fear of the unknown motivates borrowers to choose the “safer” fixed rate alternative.
This decision is usually not in the best long-term interest of the borrower. It seems paradoxical, but in many cases choosing some sort of adjustable rate loan is actually the better financial decision. This is driven by two factors:
• The security of a fixed rate comes at a price (a higher rate compared to adjustable loans long-term).
• Over time, the interest rate risk of an adjustable rate loan diminishes, as the rises and falls of rates even out with the rhythms of the American economy.

 

The purported attraction of a fixed rate loan is security.  The lender assumes all the risk of changes in interest rates. That comfort comes at a price, however. On one hand, the borrower knows what his or her rate and payment will be for as much as thirty years. This price premium is, in effect, insurance that the borrower buys annually to have the lender assume the interest rate risk. Over the life of the loan, the cost of that insurance can add up:

Additionally, most (not you, of course) home owners that have owned a home for 10 years have a refi history that looks something like this:

• 2002 - $300,000  30 year fixed 6.5% to lower monthly payment.
• 2005 - $375000  20 year fixed 5,25% cash out at historically low rates.
• 2010 - $350,000  20 year fixed 4.25% to lower rate and payment
• 2013 - $327,000 15 year fixed 3.25% to save a ton of money in interest.

Average cost (whether out of pocket, out of equity or via a higher interest rate, I promise you, there's always a cost) per transaction: $4500 x 4 refis = $18,000.

Security? Only in an ideological sense.  

 

California Home Prices: A History

CMG Financial - All in One

Back-Jack


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QE-shmooey

An early release of the Fed minutes caught me by surprise this morning. Not the "leak" in and of itself (DaRAHma!) but what the minutes revealed.  While Bernanke suggested tapping the brake pedal  on QE appears to be in order, the minutes tell us Fed members are not unified in this.  

Of everything I've read, Barry Habib offers the most intriguing take thus far.   Below is exerpted from this morning's Daily Update at www.MBSHighway.com.  

Within the Minutes, Fed members raised concerns that the jobless rate was elevated and that they are not confident of sustained improvement.  Remember, these Minutes were originally taken from the Fed Meeting prior to the most recent dismal Jobs Report.  Score one for keeping QE around longer.  On the other hand, there were several members who appeared to be in favor of the concept of a mid-year tapering down of QE purchases.  It looks as if the Fed is divided on when QE should begin to be tapered.

And speaking of the Fed and QE 3, supposedly QE 3 is defined by $85 billion in monthly Bond purchases.  This is supposed to be $45 billion of longer dated Treasuries and $40 billion of Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) each month.   But swept under the rug is the fact that the Fed can reinvest principal – meaning that any MBS holdings that have been paid off, like individuals who are refinancing or principal payments, can be reinvested in buying MBS.  I think most would find it surprising that this amount actually exceeds the amount of buying they are supposed to be doing.  For example, last month, the Fed purchased their normal $40 billion in MBS plus an additional $45 billion.  This totals $85 billion in Mortgage Bond purchases.  So, when the Fed eventually gets around to using this tapering mechanism, we will need to listen to see if it includes reinvestment, because this figure can be very significant.  

Interest Rates, Thin Air, Ignorance and Treason

"In 1980 the national debt was only 800 billion but interest rates were at 20%.  Now.... the debt is nearly 16 trillion -20 times what it was in 1980! And rates?  Well, they're at zero."   -Mike Norman, John Thomas Financial Chief Economist
                         




Clearly, deficits don't matter when you're the score keeper.  Modern money is tax driven.  Without taxation modern money has no value.  The U.S. dollar is modern money and it comes from "thin air".  So what happens to modern money when we pay Federal taxes?  It goes back where it came from - literally!  Dollars are spent into existence by decree of Congress.  The Federal government's liability is our asset and vice versa. Remember the Clinton surplus?




Every minute of every day the arbitrary number on the U.S. Debt clock is equal to dollars saved here and around the world, to the penny.  So, what's so unsustainable about consumers wanting to save dollars? Get a grip, people.  Stop listening to FOX, and CNBC and CNN and ABC and other mainstream sources because it makes you dumb!  Willful ignorance on this topic is an act of treason.